Advance Rutgers Podcast: Building Resiliency in Coastal Communities

Published September 20, 2022

Sea level rise is the biggest threat to coastal communities when it comes to the effects of climate change, according to Alexander Gates. Gates is a distinguished service professor at Rutgers University–Newark and the founder of the Institute for Coastal Climate Change in Urban Areas. In this episode of the Advance Rutgers podcast, he explains why northern New Jersey and New York are at particular risk —plus how the institute will help communities, government agencies, and businesses prepare for the impacts of a changing climate.

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Podcast Transcript

Building Resiliency Podcast Episode Transcript

Christine Fennessy

Welcome to Advance Rutgers, a podcast about the many ways that Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, is addressing the critical issues of our day. At Rutgers, we believe a better tomorrow starts with bigger thinking today. And our talented and driven community is improving the human condition with transformative, multidisciplinary projects. This podcast will explore those groundbreaking initiatives: what they are, why they matter, and who they benefit.

Today, we’re talking with Alexander Gates. He’s a Distinguished Service Professor at Rutgers University–Newark and the founder of the Institute for Coastal Climate Change in Urban Areas, a program that will help communities, government agencies, and businesses prepare for the effects of a changing climate. Thanks for joining us.

So, can we just start out the conversation here by having you explain why exactly coastal areas are often this “ground zero” of sorts for the effects of climate change?

Alexander Gates

Sure. Obviously, they are. And the biggest problem is sea level rise. So, with climate change, we are melting our polar ice caps at an alarming rate. And the biggest problem with that is, everybody looks at sea level rise and says, ‘Oh, yeah, it’s up 10 inches (or something) since 2000.’ But the problem is it’s not a straight line. The curve has become asymptotic, so instead of going up nice and straight every year, the curve gets steeper. So, the amount of water that is going to be invading our shores and our coastal areas is going to be ever-increasing, and clearly we can’t even predict it; it just changes so fast.

Christine Fennessy

So, when we’re talking about climate change in coastal areas, we’re primarily talking about sea level rise. Or are there other factors, too, in addition to sea level rise?

Alexander Gates

Oh, absolutely. There’s a lot of factors. So, sea level rise is obviously a big one, because it’s going to physically flood things out eventually. But the sea surface temperature is also increasing at a very high rate. And there is a magic number of 79 degrees Fahrenheit for the sea level, for powering up hurricanes or having them fall apart.

So as the sea level temperature goes up, it means those big storms that we usually only have to worry about in the southeastern United States can make it to the northeast on a much more regular basis. So not only the flooding on a day-to-day level, but this big thing with hurricanes is the surge. So, you can get these huge surges that’ll just wipe out areas that normally you would think were going to be safe. So, you have that.

In addition, in coastal areas, you have different types of things that live in the ocean that might only be in the South. And all of a sudden, they start migrating their way up north. So, if we all of a sudden wind up with Portuguese Man o’ Wars [a venomous marine animal] off our coast, it’s going to make life difficult for bathers.

And in addition to the different types of animals that can come up, there is red tide. Red tide is typically more common in the South, but we do get it up here on occasion. And certainly, raising the temperature is going to wind up with that, and that’s toxic. So… along the coast, [it’s] not just that the sea level’s going to rise, but all these things that accompany it are also going to be problematic.

Christine Fennessy

And it also would mean the loss of some of the good things—so some of the ocean life that might be migrating might be the fisheries that are important to the industry off the coast of New Jersey and New York; they might leave and go north. Or the habitat loss. Is that also an impact that we need to be concerned about?

Alexander Gates

Oh, absolutely. There are certain [types of marine life that] live in different temperatures. And if you change the temperature, then things are not going to be in the same places as they were before. Our industry centers itself around where things are. And if they move, then the whole industry is going to have to move, and that’s expensive to move an industry. And they may not even move; they may just disappear. So there are obviously beneficial things that we may lose as well.

Christine Fennessy

Are there wetlands that are still intact, or coastal ecosystems that are meant to take the brunt of some of these surges that we’ve been losing over time because of climate change?

Alexander Gates

Well, there certainly are, not even just on the coast, but inland. So, for example, the Hackensack Meadowlands can get flooded and there are delicate ecosystems there. In addition, we have bird sanctuaries and things like that, that are mostly coastal, [and] shellfish tend to be right up along the coast, and things like that.

So, there is a lot of different life that depends on the coast being a certain way. … It can evolve to adapt, but things are changing so quickly, typically what happens is you have extinctions, so the adaptation doesn’t happen. It just goes extinct.

Christine Fennessy

Wow. Yeah. So, there’s so much going on there that’s potentially at risk of great change. And maybe this question is perhaps a little silly, but why is there the need for the institute, and what will it do?

Alexander Gates

Climate change is here and it’s going to come. In fact, [researchers have] estimated that the cost is going to be $69 trillion for the damage that climate change is going to do on a worldwide level. And I’m sure that number will [grow].

So, the problem is that if you live in Oklahoma City, say, it might get a little hotter, but the reality is, is it going to change a lot? Probably not. You already got a lot of tornadoes around there. You’re not going to probably get any worse tornadoes. Might get a little warmer, but that’s it. But if you live in a coastal area and especially in an urban coastal area, the cost of that $69 trillion is going to be focused on those areas.

With this area where we are in northern New Jersey and in New York, we stand to have a lot of the damage… right here from the changes that we’re going to have because of climate. … We already know it’s going to happen. And even if we stop using fossil fuels tomorrow, the damage is already done. You’re not going to stop the melting from taking place overnight. It’s still going to go up. We’re still going to have things happen. So, the idea is to get people to understand what’s coming, to be able to plan ahead and be able to pick and choose the things that they want to be able to save, and the other things that they might not want to or be able to save.

So, this [institute] gives us the ability to plan and see as far ahead what things are going to happen, all these complex changes. So as my colleague said, it’s like the Bloomberg of climate change. If you want to know about where to invest, you go and you look at Bloomberg. This, you want to know what climate change is going to do and how fast and what are all the aspects of it, that’s what we wanted to put together.

Christine Fennessy

So, what will that look like?

Alexander Gates

Okay. So, what we want to do is, we are going to bring together all of the researchers who are the biggest experts on these areas, whether it’s the state climatologists we have… and we have somebody who’s a transportation expert. So all of these different people that have dealt with climate change—ecologists, to see what kind of changes we can expect in insects, in vegetation, and things like that—we have people who are going to look at public health because there’s going to be public health issues that are going to come up from this. And a person I work with, Kevin Lyons from the business school, he does modeling.

Christine Fennessy

I’m going to interrupt the conversation here for just a second, for listeners who might not be familiar. Kevin Lyons is an Associate Professor of Professional Practice. He’s co-chair of Rutgers Business School–Newark and –New Brunswick, and co-chair of the President’s Task Force on Carbon Neutrality and Climate Resilience. Okay. Back to how Dr. Lyons will be using modeling as part of the institute.

Alexander Gates

He looks at how things change as far as use goes, what people are mostly using, but they have this modeling software where they can predict where things are going to go. He’s a green consumer type person, where he can look and see what the trends in garbage production is and things like that. So, he’s going to be able to use that software to be able to predict what kind of things are going to happen in the future, so the companies and people and the communities can adapt and decide what they’re going to do as far as getting ready for these changes.

Christine Fennessy

So, can you give me a hypothetical scenario? When this is really rolling, how would a household use the information coming out of the institute, perhaps?

Alexander Gates

Well, a household, probably not. Obviously you can make a decision [such as] whether you’re going to buy a house [or] if your house is in a bad area, what type of things are you going to do to keep it safe?

So, the example I would always use is that right before the 20th century, the biggest city in the Gulf Coast was Galveston, Texas. It was the New York of the Gulf Coast. That’s what they used to call it. And in 1900, this hurricane ([by the way,] they weren’t tracking hurricanes in those days) came rolling up, which they didn’t know was going to come. And it rolled right over the top of Galveston [and] killed 10,000 people. It was the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States. And Galveston went from being the top city; you know now that Galveston’s just a little city. Houston is big or New Orleans, or places like that.

So, what they did is they built a sea wall… after, of course, this is after the horse gets out of the stables. They built a sea wall. So, the sea wall is 17 feet high, and it [has protected] them from hurricanes since then. We [at the institute] want to be able to tell you that ‘this is going to come’ before the hurricane comes, so you can make the decision in your coastal community [regarding] if you want to build a sea wall and then maybe spend several million dollars to put the sea wall in, rather than when the hurricane comes in and does several billion dollars’ worth of damage.

Christine Fennessy

Wow. Okay. So that’s a good example of how a community would perhaps benefit from the research that’s coming out of the institute. What about businesses?

Alexander Gates

Right. So, a lot of the businesses have their warehouses and factories and things like that right on the coast. So, if you’re going to decide, ‘Well, we need more space,’ all right, should you expand the space you already have? Or should you find other space? And with the space that you already have, should we then protect it? If you have a house, should the house be jacked up and put on stilts? What kind of things should I be able to do ahead of time? And how far ahead should I be thinking about doing this? If I’m going to have to make these changes, do I have five years? Do I have two years? What timeframe do I have?

So, we can be able to answer all those questions. [For example,] you’re in a low spot. The water’s going to come in. You’ve probably got five years before it’s going to happen. Now we can adjust where we put our money, and where we decide to make investments ahead of time and be able to minimize the impact of what’s going to happen.

Christine Fennessy

Now, would this be targeted towards communities further inland? I ask that only because I’m thinking these communities right on the coast, haven’t they known for a long time? Don’t they know that the threat is coming, that the sea wall needs to be there, their house needs to be on stilts? Are you saying that it’s maybe not those communities so much that need to be using this knowledge so much as communities further inland that think they’re safe right now?

Alexander Gates

I think everybody needs to use it. I mean, if you were to say, ‘Oh, everybody knows this,’ well, look what happened during [Hurricane] Sandy. I mean, it was one of the most expensive natural disasters of the world. It wasn’t really a big storm compared to what you get in the Gulf Coast, wasn’t even a Category 1 hurricane when it came ashore. And yet, it was the second most damaging storm in the United States, because nobody was ready for it.

So, we have to start thinking about getting ready, even along the coast, even inland. And inland, there’s lots of things too. I mean, we had to shut down all of our recreational lakes a couple years ago. I don’t know if we shut them down last summer, but two years ago we had to shut them all down because of blue-green algae, which really isn’t blue-green algae. It’s really a cyanobacteria. It’s a bacterium that produces toxins that all of a sudden, we’ve got in our recreational lakes.

We have an increase in equine encephalitis now, because of the temperature increase. The stuff that usually stayed to the South is now making it all the way up to the north. So the coastal regions absolutely [need to be prepared]. But it isn’t just the coastal regions. Everybody is going to have to think about how they’re going to adapt to this. And even with pollution, a good chunk of our Superfund sites near the coast are in jeopardy of, in case you have a storm, they can become eroded. And all of a sudden, you’ve got things that were pretty much sequestered in the environment [now] causing health problems. So, it’s everywhere.

Christine Fennessy

So, what is it that makes the institute’s approach so unique?

Alexander Gates

So ours is more of this predictive capability, using all of the analytics that we can possibly use, using censors, using satellite imagery, taking all the stuff together as a big data approach, to being able to then analyze as a model how we can then figure out [what’s coming]. And obviously, we’re not going to be 100% accurate, but we can still be helpful and say, ‘If we could prevent 70% of the loss that’s going to come from climate change by being able to let people know well ahead of time what they should or shouldn’t be thinking about doing,’ I mean, then that’s a success.

Christine Fennessy

And how optimistic are you that people will listen?

Alexander Gates

Well, there’s a good question. I assume companies are now taking climate change seriously. So, even though you think of the general population, maybe they don’t take it that seriously, but companies who might lose money because of this are taking it seriously. So, that’s the big deal. If we can tell them, ‘Listen, you’re going to lose a huge amount of money if this happens,’ they’ll pay attention enough to invest in this and be part of it.

Christine Fennessy

All right. So, how do you see the work of the institute unfolding? And what would be the ultimate goal of it?

Alexander Gates

I already have contacted a lot of the scientists. Then … we’ll start meeting with government agencies, local politicians, and even community groups, because it affects the community as well—the Port of Newark and things like that.

In fact, how I kind of got this idea was actually, I was flying in a plane. I was coming in for a landing at Newark Airport, and I looked out the window and there’s the port and there’s a train track, and there’s the turnpike, and here’s the airport—all within about 300 feet and about a foot or two of height difference. And I said, ‘Holy cow, you’re going to wipe out the port, the train, the turnpike, and the airport in one little surge.’ All [the water] has to be is a few feet higher, [and] you’re going to wipe them all out. So, you can see how there’s a lot of things that all interact with each other.

So, how we put this together is to get all of those stakeholders and say, ‘Okay, this is what we’re going to do.’ So, the stakeholders get together, we then start talking to them about where their interests are to start with. ‘What are you most concerned about?’ And then we also start looking to see what areas are going to be most hit. And then we’ll be able to put those two things together, and that’s how it starts.

So, we raise the money, we do the science, we put together maps of things, timetables, start modeling things out ahead of time. And then we’ll be able to advise—once we start getting some results—advise these companies and communities and the government on what things we are going to have to put on the front burner.

Christine Fennessy

Is it even possible to say you have an ultimate goal when a project is dedicated towards climate change?

Alexander Gates

The ultimate goal is to be able to warn people ahead of time where problems might be cropping up, so that they can take appropriate action. So, [our goal] is to minimize the damage that’s going to be done to these groups—whether it’s governmental or community or businesses—to minimize the damage so that it doesn’t become a devastating cost. And look at what’s happening now with the pandemic, as far as the supply chain. Imagine what climate change can do to the supply chain. So, we want to try to be able to help people avoid these horrible problems that we’re even facing now.

Christine Fennessy

You mentioned that it could be possible that the most damage done by climate change could be done to the Northeast of the United States. Why do you say that?

Alexander Gates

Well, if you look at climate change, actually the changes in temperatures, you say, ‘Oh, it’s the same everywhere.’ It actually isn’t. So, in the New York/northern New Jersey area, the temperature’s actually going up faster than most places. And also, as I said, the big thing is we’re right on the waterway. We have the second largest port; all of our airports sit right down at sea level. I mean, we have a lot of our infrastructure, bridges, roadways, tunnels, all of our infrastructure sits on the water.

So, that’s our biggest problem here. That’s why we’re at such a dangerous area. There are other places, too—Miami obviously, but it doesn’t have the intricate waterways to go up into Miami. Everything’s right along the coast. But we [in New Jersey] have the Hudson River and the Passaic River and the Hackensack Meadowlands and Flushing Meadows, and all these things that are right at sea level. And if the water goes up, they’re all going to be in trouble. And anything that’s borne by the water, they’re all in trouble.

Christine Fennessy

Okay. So, there is this argument that some of these coastal communities shouldn’t be inhabited in the face of climate change. So, can you just, if you feel this way, give us a sense of the importance of these communities, and why they should be strengthened rather than abandoned?

Alexander Gates

Well, in the ideal world, they wouldn’t be inhabited, because they do more damage than they do any good. By the same token obviously, it’s a big area for commerce for New Jersey. We’re known for our coast, for our beaches. So, to abandon them and not make them accessible would be a huge hit to the income of the state. So, I mean, economically, abandoning the coast would be a horror for the state. Environmentally, it would probably be good. Obviously, humans have to try to balance the environmental versus the economic cost. It would be nice to get something in between.

Christine Fennessy

And how likely do you think it is that communities and businesses will make these investments that you’re talking about?

Alexander Gates

Well, I think that after [Hurricane] Sandy, people are taking this a lot more seriously than they have in the past. And the government seems to be much more responsive to these sorts of things. I know, as I say, there are programs now to try to encourage people to use more solar energy on roofs and things like that.

So, I think the government is going to help us move forward with this, and I think companies in the area, after they saw what happened with Sandy, are going to think twice about just doing whatever they want. So, I’m optimistic.

Christine Fennessy

Well, that’s good. And are there any things that we can do on an individual level that do matter, that could maybe make us feel slightly more empowered when it comes to climate change?

Alexander Gates

Well, sure. I mean, [some people] think about “environmentalist” as a bad word, but to me, the term “conservationist” is a useful term that is less offensive to some people. And that’s basically what we have to do. We have to try to conserve our resources.

So, when it comes to using electricity, you can turn electrical currents off; you can get solar panels for your roof. You can buy a hybrid car or an electric car or something. There’s plenty of ways to make yourself more efficient. Obviously, with eight billion people on the planet, one person feels overwhelmed. But you have to take it as a principle type thing. ‘I’m going to live by these principles, and I’m going to do what I can.’ And if everybody takes that attitude, you’ll see that the changes will be made. But that’s the way it has to go.

The big thing I always use as a good example is, if you remember, we had a hole in the ozone, which we still do. It was big in [the 1980s and 1990s], but we identified the problem. And those were what are called CFCs, chlorofluorocarbons. And we signed an accord and everybody is getting rid of them. And then we have the phase twos that we get rid of by 2030, and by 2050, supposedly the hole will be filled back in and the ozone will be back to normal.

So, we did make an effort to deal with a global pollution issue and seem to be conquering it. So, if people think that what they’re doing is not helping, that’s the thing they should look at and say, ‘Okay, it can be done.’

Christine Fennessy

Oh, that’s an interesting way to look at it. Okay. So, what is your vision for coastal communities 50 years from now?

Alexander Gates

Well, I think the coastal communities in New Jersey are going to have to be re-engineered. It’s a slow change. I’m not saying they need to change tomorrow, but over a 50-year period, they should re-engineer. So coastal communities that want to remain as popular boardwalk-type areas might have to think about building a sea wall. People would go out across the sea wall to go in the water, but the sea wall would protect the areas where housing would be, or businesses, or things like that.

Other areas, they might decide… let’s turn it into a park. So, there are parks down on Long Beach Island or up at Sandy Hook where people don’t build anything, and maybe they would turn other areas into that. So, by looking at the entire coastal community and using this institute, what’s going to happen depending where you are? Is it going to cost you a lot to try to save it, or not?

Then you would make the decision and a slow re-engineering of the coast. Maybe some of the houses will have to be jacked up and put on stilts. But people will be able to make a decision and plan, so it’s more of a planning type future for the coastal region, I think. So over 50 years, they could do that. They could sit down and do some regional planning, and that’s what I think needs to happen. And then you can come up with the right ideas of how to adjust.

Christine Fennessy

What do you find most fulfilling about being involved in an initiative like this?

Alexander Gates

Well, as I say, I’ve always been careful about the environment. This would be able to make a difference on a bigger scale. So, I’ve done my own work locally or in my neighborhood or in my own little community, but there’s a lot of people right now, because these changes are coming so fast, that are not going to be able to just adapt to them without really giving it some serious thought.

I can help those people. I mean, obviously rich people can do whatever they want. They can just abandon the house on the coast or sell it or whatever. And they have enough money to do whatever they want, but poor people don’t, and poor people tend to wind up in places where they’re going to have a harder time of things.

A prime example of that: You look across and you see the New York skyline, you’ve got the big tall buildings down in the Business District and you’ve got Midtown, big buildings. And in the middle, it’s got this little low spot. Why is it there? And everyone says, ‘Oh, because the bedrock isn’t there,’ and things like that. It’s not the reason. The reason is that was a swamp. It was full of mosquitoes and muck and all kinds of stuff, and guess who wound up living there? It wasn’t the rich people. That’s why Chinatown is there, and Little Italy, and all those neighborhoods are in that area because [residents] couldn’t afford to live other places. So, this institute will help people that would wind up in places like that to be able to not take it on the chin while everybody else survives.

Christine Fennessy

The Institute for Coastal Climate Change in Urban Areas is just one part of a robust, university-wide effort to address one of the most important issues of our time. These initiatives are all working to mitigate climate change in a variety of ways. They’re assessing and managing the impact on biodiversity, identifying pathways to achieving carbon neutrality, and training the next generation of decision makers to help vulnerable communities prepare for a changing climate.

Okay, that is it. I’d like to thank Professor Gates for his time and his insight. Music in this episode is by Epidemic Sound. And you can subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcasts.

Multidisciplinary projects like the Institute for Coastal Climate Change in Urban Areas embody the innovative drive of Rutgers, New Jersey’s academic, health, and research powerhouse. I’m your host and producer, Christine Fennessey. Join us next time as we explore more initiatives that will better the world.

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.